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Archive for November, 2009

Fighting the five-finger discount

Fighting the five-finger discount

Inventory losses are on the rise, thanks mostly to cashiers giving themselves and friends five-finger discounts. Employees stole an estimated $15 billion from retailers last year, according to University of Florida criminologist Richard Hollinger, who conducts an annual survey of the country’s top stores. That’s 25% more than stores lost to shoplifters.

In almost all of these cases, closed-circuit-TV monitoring systems failed to spot the crime. “The problem is, you have hours and hours of video to go through,” says Hollinger. In recessionary times few companies have the staff to review all that footage.

So Agilence, a small firm in Camden, N.J., is stepping in with a solution: patented software that scans for likely theft moments and a team of “loss prevention” experts to review the results for you. By synchronizing raw security-camera footage with point-of-sale data, the software takes a still image associated with every item scanned at a checkout stand.

The market is crowded: Plenty of companies, including Vfinity and StopLift, sell advanced video surveillance technology. But few offer point-of-sale synchronization, and fewer still include human video analysts in the price of a subscription, which starts at $300 per month.

Rather than having to scan hours of video, Agilence’s investigators can quickly review thousands of still images on a computer screen, click on any that appear suspect and call up the full video of the transactions.

The Agilence analysts report likely cases of fraud — which employers can then see for themselves — and note areas in which intervention or improved training might help. “A retailer would have to hire 10 employees to do what we do for them,” says Pedro Ramos, vice president of operations at Agilence.

In particular, Ramos says, Agilence is seeing an increase in conspiracies between cashiers and customers, known as “sweethearting.” The employee may bag an item after voiding a transaction, or simply press the price check button on the register and allow his friend to walk past the checkout station as if a sale had been made.

Hollinger and other experts say Agilence is onto something big. The next step is to automate the process and identify common scam patterns. “We’re starting to see the computers getting smarter,” Hollinger says. “They soon may be smart enough to send a text message to alert a manager who’s actually in the store and can do something about it.

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Free cash for your business

Free cash for your business
Small business grants are rare, but they do exist. Here’s how to find them.
When hunting for cash, desperate small business owners may find themselves sucked into buying books and software packages promising “Billions in Free Grants!” from Web sites with names like NeverPayItBack.com, or hiring consultants who promise to find them gads of money. All they’re likely to get, though, are empty promises.

Grants are rare, but the information you need to find and apply for legitimate ones is publicly available and free. For qualifying businesses, there really are opportunities to land free money from state, county and city governments, as well as private foundations and corporations.

Technology startups traditionally have the best chance of getting grant funding, often through the federal government’s Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) or Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs. These programs are lucrative, awarding more than $2 billion each year, but both require a tight match with exacting requirements.

For most companies, a better fit will be the grants many state and city governments offer for small, tech-focused businesses. In Columbus, Ohio, TechColumbus offers TechGenesis grants of up to $50,000 to allow entrepreneurs to test their ideas and see if they are business-worthy. The Ben Franklin Partnership in Philadelphia and the Maine Technology Institute in Gardiner, Maine, are two more of the dozens of organizations that invest in local tech companies with growth potential.

Finding grant money for non-tech businesses is a little tougher. The first step: Figure out if you qualify for any special small business certifications, such as a minority-owned, disadvantaged, woman-owned or veteran-owned business. Federal and state governments sometimes give priority for grants to these types of business owners.

Then look at your local government Web sites — for your city, county and state — and find the economic development agency or area equivalent. Many of these agencies offer government-sponsored grants to attract new businesses or help existing firms expand, train workers, or become more environmentally friendly. For instance, the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity offers matching grants to businesses that want to expand and modernize their recycling programs, while the Central Oregon Intergovernmental Council gives workforce training grants to businesses in several Oregon counties.

Next, sign up at Grants.gov to receive information about specific kinds of federal grants. Few businesses will directly qualify, but with some creativity, you can find ways to tap the cash flow, says Kate Lister, author of Finding Money –The Small Business Guide to Financing.

“Let’s say you own a small plumbing company,” Lister says, “and at the federal level there is a grant for capital improvements for which only schools can apply. Sign up to be notified of anything that happens with that grant and post your own note to it that says, ‘I’d like to be a subcontractor on this.’ Or go to the contracting officer listed and say, ‘Here’s what I can offer.’ Since that contracting officer is the person who will notify the winner of their grant award, he can also say to the school: ‘Hey, I’ve got a contractor you might want to try.’ And even if this isn’t the right grant for you, there might be something else down the line, so connecting with these contracting officers is really all about networking.”

Another avenue for grant money is workforce training. Most states have grants, often funded through the unemployment insurance tax system, says Michael Godley, principal at Workforce Development, a consultancy in Boston that focuses on helping business owners tap into workforce training funds nationwide. A good way to find these grants is by simply Googling “workforce training funds” within your state, or contacting local community colleges — they often administer the funds — or a workforce investment board.

The legislature in Massachusetts, for example, just funded its workforce training fund at $10 million. That’s down from the previous year, when it got $21 million. But as Godley points out: “Ten million is still a lot of money. And that will go to a few hundred companies.”

Small manufacturers can find grants for upgrading facilities or updating processes by looking at their state’s Manufacturing Extension Partnerships. Nearly every state has one, says Bob Kill, president of Enterprise Minnesota, which provides Minnesota-based manufacturing companies with matching grants for process improvement or staff development. In New York, Empire State Development offers capital grants of up to $1 million to manufacturers with as few as 50 employees, through its manufacturing assistance program.

A good source for foundation grants is the Foundation Center, which offers basic information on U.S.-based foundations, grant-making public charities and corporate giving programs. Most of these sorts of grants go to non-profits, but one way small businesses can broaden their suitability for grants is to create a not-for-profit offshoot to their business. The not-for-profit side usually offers different or less comprehensive products and services than the for-profit, says Dave Lavinsky, president of Growthink in New York City, a consultancy that assists startups in developing business plans and raising capital. A for-profit children’s theatre company, for example, could have a non-profit arm teaching after-school drama programs.

No matter what grant you apply for, remember that the cash is usually earmarked for funding specific projects or products — not entire companies. If you want free money, be prepared to adapt. “A lot of times business owners will modify their business based on funding opportunities,” Lavinsky notes.

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Make money in 2010: Your investments

Make money in 2010: Your investments
After this year’s monster rally, smaller gains probably lie ahead.
(Money Magazine) — With the market up more than 60% since March, you’re probably feeling a lot better about your portfolio lately than you did a year ago. The worry for 2010: Will the runup run out of steam?

Even though stocks are still well below their 2007 peak, they can no longer be considered cheap, with the price/earnings ratio for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 now nearly 20% higher than its long-term average.

“In order for the market to keep delivering gains in 2010, companies need to start showing some real, sustainable earnings growth,” says Tom Forester, manager of the Forester Value Fund.

The good news is that those profits will probably materialize. Analysts look for operating earnings for S&P 500 companies to rise 27% from recession-battered levels, fueled primarily by improving economic growth overseas and a further weakening of the U.S. dollar (that makes our goods cheaper abroad and boosts exports).

So even if P/E ratios fall to historic levels, stocks still have room to move modestly higher, says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research. How modestly? Say goodbye to double digits and get used to returns closer to 6% annually for the foreseeable future.

Over the short-term, the path to that 6% may not be smooth, given the risks the economy still faces. But you’ll be hard-pressed to do better elsewhere. “The easy money has already been made in the bond market too,” says Carl Kaufman, manager of the Osterweis Strategic Income fund. Most analysts now expect low- to mid-single-digit returns for both high-quality and “junk-rated” issues in 2010, and a skimpier 2% to 3% for Treasuries at best.

Wild card: To fill the void created by the slowdown in consumer spending, U.S. companies must rely more on exports to fuel profits. If growth stalls overseas, corporate earnings and stock prices here will also suffer.

What to watch: Keep an eye on the yield curve. A widening gap between the yields on 10-year and two-year Treasuries signals growth in the economy and corporate profits.
The action plan

Stocks: Rebalance your portfolio — now. Sharp market moves can quickly throw your asset allocation out of whack. That’s why back in March, with stocks down 57% in 18 months, Money advised moving swiftly to rebalance your portfolio to its normal stock-bond mix and maybe boosting your stock weighting by five percentage points.

Given the market’s white-hot performance since, your portfolio is likely off -kilter again — only this time, you probably have too little in bonds. Rebalance again now to get back to your original mix and consider raising your bond commitment by five to 10 points. Get there by directing all new investments into fixed-income securities or by shifting money out of stocks and into bonds until you’re at the allocation you want.

Stocks: Favor the big guns. Also weigh shifts within the stock portion of your portfolio to reflect changes in market conditions. For instance, small-cap stocks with little (or no) earnings have been the big winners in this year’s rally, making blue chips look cheap by comparison.

“As the recovery matures, the best performers will be high-quality companies with lots of cash, sustainable earnings, and the clout to take market share,” says David Spika, chief investment officer of Westwood Holdings. A good option for beefing up on big-caps: FMI Large Cap (FMIHX) on the Money 70 list of recommended funds.

Stocks: Think globally. Next year business spending is expected to hold up better than consumer spending, especially in overseas markets. Goldman Sachs’s chief U.S. strategist David Kostin thinks energy, technology, and materials companies should see particularly robust growth, since they generate at least half their revenue from foreign markets. Jensen (JENSX) and T. Rowe Price New Era (PRNEX) are Money 70 funds with big bets on these sectors.

Bonds: Stay short and focused on quality. To shield yourself from the twin risks of default and rising rates, stick with highly rated bonds that mature in five years or less. A smart choice: FPA New Income (FPNIX), which has a mix of top-rated corporates and munis. And don’t limit your foreign exposure to stocks; it makes sense to be looking abroad when it comes to some of your bondholdings as well. A solid choice: Templeton Global Bond (TPNIX).

Bonds: Hedge against inflation. Subpar growth should keep a lid on prices next year. But inflation could reignite quickly after that, given the big money the government is pumping into the economy. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which adjust your principal to keep up with rising prices, protect you against this threat. Buy them via a fund like iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (TIP).

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Stocks: Buyers ’swooping back in’

Stocks: Buyers ’swooping back in’
Wall Street lost a mere 6% in the fall selloff before bouncing back last week. Can it keep the ball rolling in a challenging week ahead?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — So was that it? Is the so-called market correction over?

Stocks rallied last week, with the Dow reclaiming 10,000, as the major indexes erased most of the losses of the previous two weeks. With the week ahead light on economic and corporate news, market direction will be fueled mostly by momentum and emotion.

“For a while, it looked like we were having a buyer’s strike, but then the buyers came swooping back in at the end of the week,” said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management.

After rallying 63% from its 12-year low hit in March, the S&P 500 shed nearly 6% in the last two weeks of October. Some feared the pullback would extend to 15%. Instead, buyers jumped back in.

“The looming issue is whether we’ve seen enough of a correction to bring out even more buyers or whether we need to see a bigger leg down first,” Ghriskey said.

A combination of trillions still sitting in money market funds in either cash or low-yielding cash equivalents makes the case for another run up. Slowly improving economic and corporate news should help as well. But as Friday’s labor market report made clear, the economic recovering is still in its infancy.

Jobs and the consumer: Last week’s run was fueled by better-than-expected profit and economic reports, the government’s decision to extend unemployment benefits and the homebuyer tax credit — and news that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, Fortune 500) bought railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI, Fortune 500).

But even bad or mixed news on the jobs front got rewarded last week, most notably on Friday, when stocks managed to gain despite a government report showing unemployment hit a 26-year high of 10.2% last month.
0:00 /5:00Obama’s agendas collide

The knowledge that the labor market is the last area to turn in a recovery and that the unemployment rate would eventually top 10% may have taken the sting out of the report, Ghriskey said. Or there may be the perception that the 10.2% rate was as bad as its going to get.

Either way, the willingness of investors to respond to both good and bad news by jumping in and buying suggests the mood has turned more positive again — whether it should or shouldn’t.

Wall Street saw its biggest one-day rally in three months after the weekly jobless claims dropped to 512,000, a level not seen since January. Yet, the decline could mean people are running out of benefits, rather than finding jobs. And unemployed or underemployed consumers don’t spend aggressively — problematic for a recovery.

“At some point soon we need to start seeing improvement rather than just better-than-expected news,” said Mike Stanfield, chief investment officer at VSR Financial Services.

“Even if the news continues to improve it’s reasonable that stocks will seesaw for the next few months until the economic news starts to show stronger growth,” he said.
On the docket

Monday: This week brings the quarterly refunding from the Treasury Department. Treasury issues $40 billion in 3-year notes Monday, $25 billion in ten-year notes Tuesday and $16 billion in 30-year bonds Thursday.

Tuesday: The Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on bi-partisan efforts needed to cut the deficit.

Bank of America’s financial services conference begins in the morning, with outgoing CEO Ken Lewis due to speak.

Wednesday: Treasury bond markets, government offices and some banks are closed for Veterans Day, but all other financial markets are open.

After the close of trading, Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500) reports quarterly results. The chip gear maker is expected to have earned 3 cents per share versus 18 cents a year ago, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

Thursday: Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) reports results before the start of trading. The Dow component is expected to have earned 81 cents per share versus 77 cents a year ago, according to forecasts.

Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) reports quarterly earnings after the close. The media company is expected to have earned 40 cents per share versus 43 cents a year ago.

Government readings on weekly jobless claims, weekly crude oil inventories and the October Treasury budget are also due in the morning, but forecasts weren’t available in advance.

Friday: The September trade balance is due out before start of trading. The trade gap is expected to have widened to $31.9 billion from $30.7 billion in the previous month, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for November is expected to have risen to 71.8 from 70.6 in the previous month.

JC Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) is due to report results before the start of trading. The retailer is expected to have earned 11 cents per share versus 55 cents a year ago.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) reports results before the start of trading. The retailer is expected to have earned 21 cents per share versus 72 cents a year earlier.

Government readings on October import and export prices are also due in the morning, but forecasts were not available in advance. Reading in cbwp.us blog

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China says farewell to “father of space technology” Qian Xuesen

BEIJING, Nov. 6 (Xinhua) — A farewell ceremony for late Chinese space scientist Qian Xuesen was held here Friday morning at the Beijing Babaoshan Cemetery.

Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin, Wu Bangguo, Wen Jiabao, Jia Qinglin, LiChangchun, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, He Guoqiang and Zhou Yongkang attended the ceremony.

Qian, widely acclaimed as the country’s “father of space technology” , died of illness here on Oct. 31 at the age of 98.

Qian Xuesen, father of space technology

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